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| Britain’s Prime Minister Theresa May announces her resignation outside 10 Downing street in central London on May 24, 2019. – Beleaguered British Prime Minister Theresa May announced on Friday that she will resign on June 7, 2019 following a Conservative Party mutiny over her remaining in power |
"A hard Brexit seems like a reality that is almost impossible to avoid"
BRUSSELS – British Prime Minister Theresa May’s downfall could shake up her country’s halting progress toward Brexit, either accelerating a British departure from the European Union or slowing it even further.
Her successor is likely to be someone who is at least willing to play with the idea of a departure from the E.U. without a safety net. May considered plunging ahead but ultimately decided it was too risky. That would mean Britain would leave on Oct. 31 – an appropriately spooky date for the economists who warn that a departure without any transition period could unleash economic hardship on both sides of the English Channel.
“A hard Brexit seems like a reality that is almost impossible to avoid,” said a spokeswoman for the Spanish government, Isabel Celaa.
Little will be clear before late October, Europeans expect, since they don’t think British lawmakers will make any difficult decisions without a deadline breathing down their backs.
European policymakers love to loathe the list of ardent Brexiteers now aiming to succeed May at 10 Downing Street. They reserve particular disdain for frontrunner Boris Johnson, whom they remember from his days whipping up euroskepticism as a Brussels-based correspondent for the Daily Telegraph. Those Brexit advocates have spent three years floating negotiating positions that are totally unrealistic given European demands and pressures, Brussels diplomats say.
“A new leader will have the opportunity to do things differently and have the momentum of a new administration,” Johnson said at a conference in Switzerland on Friday, adding that Brussels might reconsider its position in light of the rise of populist momvements in Europe.
“We will leave the E.U. on 31 October, deal or no deal,” Johnson said. “The way to get a good deal is to prepare for a no deal.”
But even if Johnson comes to office, a flipside is also possible, some here say: The gung-ho new prime minister could be confronted with the same painful Brexit education May has undergone for nearly three years. That, they say, could lead to yet more uncertainty and requests for extensions.
There are some European leaders – notably French President Emmanuel Macron – who long to pull the ripcord at the end of October and cast Britain away so Europe can move on. But for now, European diplomats expect that an extension in October would be granted, following the same logic as an emergency meeting of E.U. leaders last month. It’s probably worse for the European Union to have Britain depart in an uncontrolled fashion than to extend the uncertainty, they said.
Still, the pressure to cut Britain loose increases the longer the discussions drag. Among other issues, the European Union needs to approve a new multi-year budget by the middle of 2020, and it needs to account for the financial hit of Brexit.
Gone by the wayside for now are European dreams of a second referendum in Britain that could reverse Brexit altogether. May’s willingness to consider the idea helped spark the final rebellion that ousted her from office. Although most European leaders would be happy to put the brakes on Brexit if they had the chance to avoid it, they don’t expect to do so.
European leaders have offered no concessions to Britain despite May’s three-time failure to pass the divorce deal, because they see the agreement less as a negotiation than as the only answer to a math problem.
Add up Britain’s red lines and what results is the current divorce deal, as unpopular as it is, policymakers in Brussels say. The only way to change the deal is to take away some of the red lines, such as a desire not to have a customs barrier between Northern Ireland and the rest of Great Britain.
That won’t change with May’s successor.
Oh – and leave without a deal? OK, fine, some diplomats here say. But the conversation the next day between London and Brussels will be the same. They still need to find a solution to keep open the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland to avoid sparking a new sectarian conflict. They have to agree a way for British citizens to continue to live and work in the E.U., and vice versa. And the E.U. will still want Britain to live up to its financial commitments in the E.U. budget it agreed to before it decided to depart the bloc.
“Citizens, peace on the island of Ireland and money,” one senior European diplomat warned last month. If there is a no-deal departure, the diplomat said, “every term in the withdrawal agreement will still be discussed with the U.K.” The diplomat spoke on condition of anonymity to outline European calculations about the negotiation.
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