He burst on to Italy’s political scene two years ago promising to reshape his country’s moribund politics, but it was an exhausted, careworn Matteo Renzi who urged Italians to say "yes" to his constitutional reforms when they vote in a referendum on Sunday.
"We have 48 decisive hours in which we can change the future of our children,” Mr Renzi told crowds in his hometown of Florence, choosing the city’s symbolic Piazza della Signoria - where the preacher Savonarola carried out his famous bonfire of the vanities - as the venue for his campaign finale.
Six months ago, Mr Renzi could not have predicted this complicated piece of constitutional reform would turn out to be a defining, down-to-the wire battle for his political future.
But that was before Brexit and Donald Trump.
Mr Renzi, 41, has staked his personal future – and that of Italy and even Europe itself - on the reforms, which he says are vital to reinvigorating a nation mired in debt and ravaged by a 36 per cent youth unemployment rate and a decade of stagnant middle-class incomes.
"If we want to shake things up in this country, it is now or never,” he added, warning that it would be “decades” before Italians were given another chance at meaningful renewal.
Analysts have warned that, as a prominent centrist voice in Europe, Mr Renzi’s departure will weaken the EU and potentially trigger a fresh eurozone banking crisis if market uncertainty caused by a "no" vote derails plans to recapitalise Italy’s debt-laden banks.
Mr Renzi, once likened to an Italian Tony Blair, promises that his reforms will liberate Italy from its near-permanent state of legislative gridlock. However, his detractors in the populist Five Star Movement say they will only further entrench the corrupt establishment classes.
"We are a country that is stuck in the mud," Beppe Grillo, the stand-up comedian who founded the Five Star Movement told a crowd of several thousand at a rally in the industrial city of Turin, urging his supporters to vote with their guts and send Mr Renzi packing.
"The country is split," Mr Grillo added. "It's a situation of mental stasis ... You have to react here. You have to react here," he said, pounding his stomach with his fists.
Opposition, however, is not confined to the Five Star Movement. Members of Mr Renzi’s own Democratic Party are opposing the reforms, as is the anti-immigrant Northern League and Silvio Berlusconi, the former prime minister, who claimed they could pave the way for “dictatorship”.
With public polls banned since Nov 18, the outcome of a bad-tempered campaign remains difficult to predict.
The last available survey showed the “No” campaign up to 10 points ahead, but ‘Yes’ camp officials say privately that their own polls show the contest narrowing.
The “Yes” camp is pinning its hopes for a surprise victory on a late boost from 1.6 milion expatriate votes, which are believed to favour Mr Renzi, and what it calls a “silent majority” of Italians who campaigners think will vote for political stability.
Polls will close at 11pm (10pm GMT), with the result expected soon after midnight.
During the day, political and market analysts will be monitoring official figures for signs of a higher turnout, which could point to a surprise win for Mr Renzi.
“Get out your mobile phones, open up your contacts and send a text message to your undecided friends and neighbours. Tell them concretely why their yes vote is so important,” Mr Renzi told his supporters, adding that there was a silent majority which “needs to be taken by the hand and led to the polls".
But regional analysts warned that, in the current febrile political climate caused by Brexit and the election of Donald Trump in America, a defeat for Mr Renzi will not be viewed as an Italy-only problem, but a further indication that Europe is at risk of being engulfed in a populist downward spiral.
“If Renzi's referendum fails, it will be seen as another symbolic victory for the populists that portends greater risk for other states and the EU,” said Mujtaba Rahman, head of Europe practice at the Eurasia Group risk consultancy.
“It will make the EU defensive and inward-looking, and more incapable of addressing the problems that are giving rise to the populists in the first place.”
Both Italian and European central banks have promised to do “whatever it takes” to stabilise markets in the wake of a ‘no’ vote, but analysts have questioned whether the European Central Bank (ECB) could fight off a sustained assault on Italy’s bond markets in the coming months.
“Market participants are already questioning whether the ECB will be able to contain the pressure on Italian bond yields,” said Prof Erik Jones, of the Johns Hopkins Institute for Policy Research in Bologna, adding the “sky would not fall” immediately.
“[But] If Italy struggles to cover its redemption requirements next February, confidence in the ECB as buyer of last resort could be badly shaken," he added.
Proponents argue that it will make the passing of legislation easier and propel Italy on the path to increased stability, greater investor confidence and economic recovery. Critics say it will place too much power in the hands of the governing party, posing a threat to democracy.
"We have 48 decisive hours in which we can change the future of our children,” Mr Renzi told crowds in his hometown of Florence, choosing the city’s symbolic Piazza della Signoria - where the preacher Savonarola carried out his famous bonfire of the vanities - as the venue for his campaign finale.
Six months ago, Mr Renzi could not have predicted this complicated piece of constitutional reform would turn out to be a defining, down-to-the wire battle for his political future.
 |
| Bob, the Telegraph's cartoonist, gives his take on the Italian referendum |
But that was before Brexit and Donald Trump.
Mr Renzi, 41, has staked his personal future – and that of Italy and even Europe itself - on the reforms, which he says are vital to reinvigorating a nation mired in debt and ravaged by a 36 per cent youth unemployment rate and a decade of stagnant middle-class incomes.
"If we want to shake things up in this country, it is now or never,” he added, warning that it would be “decades” before Italians were given another chance at meaningful renewal.
Analysts have warned that, as a prominent centrist voice in Europe, Mr Renzi’s departure will weaken the EU and potentially trigger a fresh eurozone banking crisis if market uncertainty caused by a "no" vote derails plans to recapitalise Italy’s debt-laden banks.
Mr Renzi, once likened to an Italian Tony Blair, promises that his reforms will liberate Italy from its near-permanent state of legislative gridlock. However, his detractors in the populist Five Star Movement say they will only further entrench the corrupt establishment classes.
"We are a country that is stuck in the mud," Beppe Grillo, the stand-up comedian who founded the Five Star Movement told a crowd of several thousand at a rally in the industrial city of Turin, urging his supporters to vote with their guts and send Mr Renzi packing.
 |
| Matteo Renzi, the Italian prime minister, has indicated he will resign if his reforms are rejected |
"The country is split," Mr Grillo added. "It's a situation of mental stasis ... You have to react here. You have to react here," he said, pounding his stomach with his fists.
Opposition, however, is not confined to the Five Star Movement. Members of Mr Renzi’s own Democratic Party are opposing the reforms, as is the anti-immigrant Northern League and Silvio Berlusconi, the former prime minister, who claimed they could pave the way for “dictatorship”.
With public polls banned since Nov 18, the outcome of a bad-tempered campaign remains difficult to predict.
The last available survey showed the “No” campaign up to 10 points ahead, but ‘Yes’ camp officials say privately that their own polls show the contest narrowing.
 |
| Beppe Grillo, right, founder of the Five Star Movement, with party politician Alessandro Di Battista |
The “Yes” camp is pinning its hopes for a surprise victory on a late boost from 1.6 milion expatriate votes, which are believed to favour Mr Renzi, and what it calls a “silent majority” of Italians who campaigners think will vote for political stability.
Polls will close at 11pm (10pm GMT), with the result expected soon after midnight.
During the day, political and market analysts will be monitoring official figures for signs of a higher turnout, which could point to a surprise win for Mr Renzi.
“Get out your mobile phones, open up your contacts and send a text message to your undecided friends and neighbours. Tell them concretely why their yes vote is so important,” Mr Renzi told his supporters, adding that there was a silent majority which “needs to be taken by the hand and led to the polls".
 |
| Posters urging a no vote and the defeat of Matteo Renzi |
But regional analysts warned that, in the current febrile political climate caused by Brexit and the election of Donald Trump in America, a defeat for Mr Renzi will not be viewed as an Italy-only problem, but a further indication that Europe is at risk of being engulfed in a populist downward spiral.
“If Renzi's referendum fails, it will be seen as another symbolic victory for the populists that portends greater risk for other states and the EU,” said Mujtaba Rahman, head of Europe practice at the Eurasia Group risk consultancy.
“It will make the EU defensive and inward-looking, and more incapable of addressing the problems that are giving rise to the populists in the first place.”
Both Italian and European central banks have promised to do “whatever it takes” to stabilise markets in the wake of a ‘no’ vote, but analysts have questioned whether the European Central Bank (ECB) could fight off a sustained assault on Italy’s bond markets in the coming months.
 |
| The Yes campaign wants to hold off another populist victory following Brexit and Donald Trump's election |
“Market participants are already questioning whether the ECB will be able to contain the pressure on Italian bond yields,” said Prof Erik Jones, of the Johns Hopkins Institute for Policy Research in Bologna, adding the “sky would not fall” immediately.
“[But] If Italy struggles to cover its redemption requirements next February, confidence in the ECB as buyer of last resort could be badly shaken," he added.
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