'Gloomy' economic predictions are wrong, pro-Brexit MPs say

'Gloomy' economic predictions are wrong, pro-Brexit MPs say

Eurosceptics insist a Government watchdog's forecasts are wrong, but pro-Remainers say "Brexit chickens are coming home to roost".

Leading Eurosceptic Cabinet ministers and pro-Leave MPs have hit out at gloomy post-Brexit economic predictions by the Government's budget watchdog and claimed its forecasts are wrong.

Coinciding with Chancellor Philip Hammond's Autumn Statement, the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) said leaving the EU could cost the UK £122bn, with lost economic growth accounting for almost half the total.

But that forecast has been bitterly attacked by pro-Brexit MPs, who claim the OBR's predictions on economic growth, trade and borrowing are too pessimistic and therefore not credible.

Cabinet ministers are said to have reacted furiously, accusing the OBR of "doom and gloom" and saying the forecast is "not worth the paper it is written on".

One minister is said to have told The Daily Telegraph: "We were told we would be in a recession. We are not. These predictions are worthless."

But pro-Remain MPs hit back at the Eurosceptics, with one former Conservative minister telling Sky News the OBR's forecasts show "the Brexit chickens are coming home to roost".

In the Commons, Mr Hammond told MPs: "While the OBR is clear that it cannot predict the deal the UK will strike with the EU, its current view is that the referendum decision means that potential growth over the forecast period is 2.4 percentage points lower than would otherwise have been the case."

Compared with figures it released in March, the OBR now predicts the UK will have to borrow an extra £122bn over the next five years and says almost half of that - £58.7bn - is directly related to the vote to leave the EU.

The warning prompted leading Eurosceptic MP John Redwood to tell the Chancellor: "The OBR is probably still quite wrong about 2017 - their forecast is too low, their borrowing forecast is too high, and we will get good access to the single market once we are out of the EU."

Another prominent pro-Leave Tory MP, Jacob Rees-Mogg, told Sky News: "It seems to me that there are two problems with those assumptions.

"One is that they assume that we will apply tariffs on the same basis inside the European Union, which the Chancellor will know he will be able to remove. And secondly, they're particularly gloomy on the prospects for financial services."

Iain Duncan Smith, the former work and pensions secretary, said the OBR forecast was "another utter doom and gloom scenario" by an organisation "that simply hasn't got anything right".

He said: "The key thing is that the OBR has been wrong in every single forecast they've made so far. On the deficit, on growth, on jobs, they've pretty much been wrong on everything."

Labour MP Gisela Stuart, who chairs the pro-Brexit Change Britain campaign group, says the OBR's forecasts are "unnecessarily pessimistic".

She added: "Predictions for a loss of investment and trade for the next 10 years do not seem credible.

"Outside of the EU's single market we can look forward to an even stronger economy - with better regulation and free trade deals with some of the fastest growing economies in the world. This will benefit businesses large and small and help to create jobs and spread prosperity across the country."

But Labour's pro-EU former Europe spokesman Pat McFadden hit back: "Today, the real picture of Britain's post-Brexit economy emerged - borrowing up, growth down, investment lower, prices higher.

"The eye-watering £58.7bn Brexit borrowing bill means less money for public services, not more as we were promised.

"The Government must now do everything it can to safeguard jobs and investment, which means rejecting a hard and destructive Brexit."

The former Tory business minister Anna Soubry, who was a prominent Remain campaigner in the EU referendum, told Sky News: "The figures from the OBR show the Brexit chickens are coming home to roost."

But Mr Duncan Smith said in his Sky News interview: "The Remainers should stop complaining."
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